Amidst Tensions: Conflicting Claims Over Indian Fighter Aircraft Losses

While a ceasefire holds between India and Pakistan following a rapid escalation, unresolved claims continue to fuel a battle of narratives. Central among these is Pakistan’s assertion that it shot down multiple Indian fighter jets on May 7 in response to Indian strikes on its territory. This incident has put a spotlight on the air power dynamics in the region, naturally leading many to wonder about the overall strength and composition of India’s aerial fleet – a crucial aspect when considering how many fighter aircraft India has at its disposal.

This report delves into the conflicting claims surrounding the alleged downing of Indian jets and what is known based on available information, four days after the two nations agreed to a ceasefire mediated by the United States.

Background of the Conflict Escalation

Tensions between India and Pakistan erupted into a military confrontation on May 7. This followed Indian air strikes on nine sites across six cities in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

India stated these strikes targeted “terrorist infrastructure” and were a response to the deadly April 22 killings of 26 tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir by suspected rebels. New Delhi blamed Pakistan for supporting the militants, a charge Islamabad denied.

Pakistan countered that Indian forces struck two cities in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and four sites in its largest province, Punjab, resulting in civilian casualties. India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh rejected these claims, asserting Indian forces only targeted those responsible for harming their citizens.

Over the subsequent four days, the nuclear-armed neighbors engaged in tit-for-tat strikes on each other’s airbases and deployed drones into each other’s territories. Amid escalating fears, top US officials intervened, making calls to Indian and Pakistani counterparts to de-escalate the conflict. On May 10, US President Donald Trump announced a successful US-mediated ceasefire. Despite initial accusations of violations, the ceasefire has largely held since.

Pakistan reported on Tuesday that Indian strikes had killed at least 51 people, including 11 soldiers and several children. India stated at least five military personnel and 16 civilians died.

Pakistan’s Specific Claims

Speaking to Al Jazeera shortly after the May 7 attacks, Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar stated Islamabad had retaliated by shooting down five Indian jets, a drone, and numerous quadcopters.

Later, Pakistan’s military spokesperson Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry specified that the warplanes were downed inside Indian territory and that aircraft from neither side had crossed into the other’s airspace during the initial attacks. India seconded this assertion.

British defence analyst Michael Clarke noted that “Neither India nor Pakistan had any need to send their own aircraft out of their own national airspace. Their standoff weapons all had long enough ranges to reach their evident targets whilst flying in their own airspace.” He added that fighter aircraft cost comparison is significant when considering the value of advanced jets involved.

On Friday, Pakistan’s Air Vice Marshal Aurangzeb Ahmed provided more specific details, claiming among the five downed aircraft were three Rafales, a MiG-29, and an Su-30. He presented electronic signatures and claimed to have the exact locations where these planes were hit. The air battle between Pakistani and Indian jets lasted for just over an hour, according to Ahmed, who is the deputy chief of operations.

He further stated that the confrontation involved at least 60 Indian aircraft, including 14 French-made Rafales. Pakistan reportedly deployed 42 “hi-tech aircraft,” including American F-16s and multi-role fighter aircraft like the Chinese JF-17s and J-10s. The deployment included some of the latest fighter aircraft operational in the region.

India’s Official Stance

Following reports, including one by Chinese state news outlet The Global Times claiming Pakistan had downed Indian fighter planes, India’s embassy in China dismissed the report as “disinformation.”

Beyond this specific denial, New Delhi has not formally confirmed or denied Pakistan’s claims of downing jets.

Asked directly about the claim, India’s Director General of Air Operations AK Bharti avoided a definitive answer. He stated, “We are in a combat scenario and losses are a part of it. As for details, at this time I would not like to comment on that as we are still in combat and give advantage to the adversary. All our pilots are back home.”

What Else Do We Know?

Beyond the official accounts, local and international media outlets have reported different versions and details supporting parts of Pakistan’s claims.

According to Indian security sources who spoke to Al Jazeera, three fighter jets crashed inside Indian-controlled territory. While these sources did not confirm the nationality of the warplanes, the context of neither side admitting to aircraft crossing the border suggests any debris found on the Indian side would likely be from an Indian plane.

Reuters news agency also reported, citing four government sources in Indian-administered Kashmir, that three fighter jets crashed in the region. CNN reported at least two jets crashed, and a French source told the outlet that at least one Rafale jet had been shot down.

Photos taken by AP news agency journalists showed debris of an aircraft in the Pulwama district in Indian-administered Kashmir, supporting reports of crashes within Indian territory.

Civilian inspects damage to his shop in Uri district, Indian-administered Kashmir, after Pakistan shelling during conflict

Reports also detailed the impact of the conflict on civilians, showing damage from shelling in border villages.

Will Both Sides Ever Agree?

Defence analyst Michael Clarke commented that if India did indeed lose a Rafale jet – an advanced and costly asset – it would certainly be “embarrassing.”

“If it came down inside Indian territory, which must be the case if one was destroyed, then India will want to keep it only as a rumour for as long as possible,” Clarke added. “India has said that ‘losses’ are inevitable, and that is probably as near as they will get to admitting a specific aircraft loss for a while.”

The conflicting narratives highlight the challenges of obtaining clear and agreed-upon facts during and immediately after military engagements, especially concerning sensitive assets like fighter aircraft.